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ELECTIONS PREDICTION: President Bio to win 2023 election Dr Blyden – 50%+ with runoff, IGR – 59% without runoff WHO IS RIGHT? WHO IS WRONG?

HomeAYV NewsELECTIONS PREDICTION: President Bio to win 2023 election Dr Blyden - 50%+...

ELECTIONS PREDICTION: President Bio to win 2023 election Dr Blyden – 50%+ with runoff, IGR – 59% without runoff WHO IS RIGHT? WHO IS WRONG?


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An All People’s Congress (APC) Party strong woman and former senior Cabinet Minister, Dr. Sylvia Olayinka Blyden, has predicted that President Dr. Julius Maada Bio will score slightly more than 50% in the first rounds of the June 2023 polls but that he will not get the required 55% threshold, which will then lead to a run-off (second rounds) polls for the presidential election.

On another view, the Institute of Governance Reforms (IGR) has predicted that President Bio will win the June 24, 2023 election on a first ballot (no run-off) with 59 percent.

Further analysing their predictions, Dr. Blyden said her prediction is based on current indicators, certain markers and with her over thirty years of experience in Sierra Leone’s politics.

The former APC Cabinet Minister said: “Today, I will make my first tentative prediction about the outcome of the 2023 Elections. First of all, I predict that there will definitely be a Run-Off Elections for the seat of President.

“Furthermore, I predict that in the First Rounds of the Presidential Elections, President Maada Bio will score a little over 50% of the votes but he will NOT reach the 55% threshold”.

She said since she started making electoral predictions, she had never gone wrong, adding that last year; “around this same time, I predicted that the APC will re-take the Tonkolili Sambaia Bendugu parliamentary seat from the governing SLPP in Parliament.

“Many disbelieved me at the time but it came to pass and the APC took the seat from the SLPP. Clearly, I’m that accurate. I use many tools and techniques to make my accurate predictions. I have many markers and indicators that I use to make my accurate predictions.

“Whilst today sees my first and tentative predictions, I don’t see these predictions changing much between now and June 24th Elections unless something deeply cataclysmic happens”.

IGR in its latest Report titled: ‘The June 2023 Elections: A Forecast of the Electoral Map of Sierra Leone’, said a SierraPoll combines survey data of registered voters with the party list of candidates across all 16 districts to assess how political parties will perform in each district and project the electoral map of Sierra Leone for the 2023 elections.

“We asked voters, which party would they vote for, for MP and councillors if elections were held tomorrow. Base on this information we forecast the composition of the next parliament, including the percentage share of women in the House as well as the distribution of the twenty-two local councils among political parties and independent candidates.

“When the survey results are compared with official district-level results in three election cycles over the last 20 years, we see changes in voting patterns in both multi-ethnic communities in the North-Eastern areas of the country and party stronghold districts.

“SierraPoll conducts opinion polls to contribute to improving the quality and integrity of Sierra Leone’s electoral process, support political parties with reliable data to plan their campaigns, as well as help the electorate and interest groups to manage expectations as they plan for life after the election”.

The IGR expressed hope that the upcoming elections provide a good opportunity for Sierra Leone to deepen the cultural and civic norms around the usage of scientific polling data to inform decision-making.

“Also, it is useful to note that as the campaign unfolds, some grounds might shift. Thus, a final prediction is required at least a week before election”. IGR concluded.

But who is right or wrong? Dr Blyden or IGR or otherwise more predictions are underway? These are the questions being asked by citizens across the country. The answer will definitely be determined in June 24th Elections. Let’s wait and see.

His Excellency President Dr. Julius Maada Bio has launched the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and National Grand Coalition (NGC) Progressive Alliance 2023 Elections Manifesto titled: ‘Big Five Gamechangers – Accelerating economic growth and building resilience,’ at the Eastern Technical University in Kenema city.

The Manifesto focuses on 5 key areas such as, ‘Feed Salone’, Human Capital Development, Youth Employment Scheme, Revamping the Public Service Architecture and Tech and Infrastructure.

His Excellency President Dr. Julius Maada Bio said ‘Feed Salone’ is an initiative to boost Agricultural productivity to ensure food security and inclusive economic growth.

He said his top priority in his second term is for Sierra Leone to be food self-sufficient, adding that the next SLPP government will boost Agricultural productivity by increasing investment, which will fuel inclusive economic growth, boost food production, reduce hunger and poverty, create jobs, boost export earnings and build resilience in the face of climate change.

On Human Capital Development, the president said nurturing skills for 21st century industry inclusive economic growth relies on skilled and educated human capital.

He said in the next five years, the SLPP government will invest in developing the technical and vocational skills required to grow the economy focusing particularly on creating equal opportunity for women.

In the area of Youth Employment Scheme (YES), His Excellency said: “A Presidential Initiative to create 500,000 jobs for the youth in five years, is a Presidential Initiative to harness the energy of Sierra Leone’s youth by creating 500,000 jobs in the next five years.

“These jobs will include skills and unskilled, long-term and seasonal jobs across all sectors. This will be done by providing incentives to the private sector to hire, train and upskill especially young women and girls”.

In Revamping the Public Service Architecture, President Bio said: “Delivery, efficiency and professionalism in the next five years, the SLPP will continue its mission to fostering a professional and meritocratic public service that is fit for purpose and delivers on its mandate. Our goal is to attract, support and retain the best and the brightest to serve the people of Sierra Leone”.

And on Tech and Infrastructure, the president said: “Pathways for Sustained Economic Growth (TIPEG), the SLPP government will accelerate its inclusive growth agenda by investing in infrastructure, technology and digitisation.

“This will be done by investing in energy generation and transmission, the construction of roads and bridges, expanding energy access across the country and making it easier to link production centres and markets. “We aim to digitise our financial sector to expand financial inclusion as a way to increase economic participation”.

On May 12th, 2018 His Excellency Julius Maada Bio was inaugurated as the 5th President of the Republic of Sierra Leone.

Born on May 12th 1964 in Tihun, Sogbini, Bonthe District, Julius Maada Wonie Bio is one of 35 children born to Paramount Chief Charlie Wonie Bio II, Sogbini Chiefdom.

H.E. President Bio completed his primary, secondary and undergraduate education in Sierra Leone. Always driven by a passion to serve his country, H.E. President Bio started his illustrious public service journey as a school teacher before joining the Sierra Leone Army where he rose through the ranks as Brigadier.

He previously served as Chief Secretary of State, Chief of Defense Staff, Minister of Information, Minister of Marine Resources, Deputy Head of State, and ultimately as Head of State of Sierra Leone from January to March 1996.

As Head of State, President Bio presided over the conduct of the first democratic elections in Sierra Leone in nearly three decades. In Sierra Leone, Julius Maada Bio is popularly referred to as the “Father of Democracy” because of his outstanding contribution towards the restoration of democracy and attainment of peace in Sierra Leone.

President Bio is a well-known Philanthropist and Humanitarian through the work of the Maada and Fatima Bio Foundation. The Foundation donated food and other items to victims and families affected by the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone and during the environmental disasters of 2015.

Most recently, he was a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Bradford, United Kingdom, pursuing a doctorate programme in Peace Studies.

H.E. President Bio credits his mother, Mamie Amie, as the person from whom he acquired all his driving principles in life – calmness, hard worker, and a staunch believer in God.


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