AYV News, June 19, 2023

The Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) holds a 13-point lead over the All People’s Congress (APC) Party, setting up a potential landslide win at the general elections, similar to that of the former President Tejan Kabbah’s landslide victory in the 2002 polls. This is according to a survey released by SierraPoll.
Out of a list of 13 aspiring candidates for Sierra Leone’s 2023 presidential elections, President Julius Maada Bio is projected to receive 56% of all votes followed by his main challenger, Dr. Samura Mathew Wilson Kamara who is projected to receive 43% of the vote, according to a newly released SierraPoll survey.
SierraPoll said: “This forecast is consistent with the findings of a June 2022 AfroBarometer survey in which 53% of Sierra Leoneans said that they trust the president “somewhat” or “a lot”. Bio’s poll result is slightly above the minimum 55% threshold required to avoid a presidential runoff.
“The electoral landscape has changed considerably since the last SierraPoll forecast of 29th May especially in swing areas of Kono, Kambia, Falaba and the Western Rural districts. It is possible that further shifts can occur as the campaign draws to a close in the coming days.
“We present this final forecast of the four-tier races utilising this latest SierraPoll data that illustrates shifting voter preferences in the districts as well as our knowledge of the ground-game that political parties have employed in successive elections.
“The main forecasts are: With an 11.9% threshold to win a seat in parliament under the new PR system, we forecast an entirely two-party parliament come June 24th. In Kambia, it appears that a good number of NGC voters have shifted to SLPP reducing the chances that a minority party will be able to get seats in the next parliament; The 2023 electoral map appears to gradually mirror the political map of 2002, the last election when the PR system was used; SLPP is projected to form the majority in parliament with 75 to 82 seats (56-61% of elected MPs), followed by APC with 51-60 seats (39-44%); Women are projected to make up between 26 and 30% of directly elected MPs in parliament.”
The SierraPoll survey further revealed that with Kambia, Koinadugu, Kono and Western Rural becoming competitive districts, SLPP is projected to take between 13-15 of the 22 local councils, while APC is tipped to take 7-9 local and municipal bodies.
It went on that seven local councils in Koinadugu, Falaba, Kambia, Kono, Western Rural and Western urban will have a significant share of opposition councillors.
“We reiterate the point made in May, that for 1 effective local governance in these competitive councils, the next set of mayors and district council chairs should consider adopting cross-party and inclusive approaches in managing service delivery on a head-to-head matchup between former Major Aki-Sawyerr and SLPP’s Gento Kamara, Aki-Sawyerr leads 56 – 44 percent among registered voters in Freetown and the environs around the City’s peninsular area.
“Since 2007, Freetown has largely voted APC and Aki-Sawyerr was tipped to retake the City Council in the last two SierraPolls and is still leading the race. However, Gento Kamara recorded a 5 percentage-point increase since the last SierraPoll in May and is polling way above all SLPP candidates vying for Freetown positions.
“Samura Kamara is also polling above the APC Mayoral candidate by 6% while SLPP’s Gento polls 10% above SLPP’s Presidential candidate Maada Bio. This variance within parties clearly points to a degree of cross-party voting.
“Meaning, a fair share of Freetonains are not voting a ‘straight ticket’ (4 for 4), that is, voting for one party in all four positions down the ballot. To understand this fluidity of voters, SierraPoll tested the tolerance of voters for opposing parties.
“Respondents were asked if the elections were held today which party would they not vote for at all for president, mayor, parliament, and local councillor.
Unsurprisingly, the data reveals Freetown as the district experiencing the highest level of crossvoting compared to the rest of the country.
“For instance, while only 10% of Samura’s supporters say they cannot vote for APC mayoral candidates in districts across the country, approximately 30% say they cannot vote for APC’s mayoral candidate in Freetown.” SierraPoll concluded.